Autonomous driving: are we there yet?
Jack Creasey writes for 2025 AD.
In the first part of this user opinion series, written by Jack Creasy, we will find out how far we're already down the road of autonomous driving and if we are even close to large scale production release.
Popular press continues to present the availability of driverless, AI controlled, self-navigating vehicles as - almost ready. All you have to do is read media coverage about organizations such as Waymo or GM/Cruise and you would think that the future is upon us - right now.
It’s my opinion, that we are clearly nowhere near a large scale production release. One example developer, Waymo, has indicated that they will acquire about 80,000 vehicles from FCA and JLR. While there is much discussion about the number of vehicles, I think it’s likely that this acquisition announcement is no more than a ‘Letter of intent’ and that they are more likely to source vehicles over 4 or more years. Even so, this number is impressive, and could potentially mean that Waymo will deploy 1300+ vehicles per month at some future stage. Although this number would represent only 10-15% of the monthly production capability for the Pacifica (FCA) or iPace (Jaguar Land Rover), does anyone really believe that their vehicle deployment could even reach these levels in just a few years? I for one, don’t think it’s even possible.
What are the future service goals for driverless vehicles?
Whether you talk about MAAS, TAAS or Uber/Lyft/Taxi like business models, vehicle requirements are about the same. Driverless vehicles used to supply a service must be able to:
- successfully navigate a specified geo-fenced service area whether it is empty or occupied by passengers.
- respond to all traffic and navigation requirements for a point to point consumer trip.
- identify themselves to the correct consumer since in busy areas there will be many vehicles and consumers mixed together.
- interact with the consumer as trip details may change, or medical or other emergencies may arise.
- be managed and directed from a remote-control center.
- ascertain and have confidence in their roadworthy status.
- understand the complete status of the vehicle and its occupants.
For the full article please click here.
For article part two please click here.
